Just for counterpoint, I looked up bar exam stats. In Illinois, 738 people took the latest bar exam, 44% passed, 54% of those taking the exam for the first time passed on their first try.
In Texas, 80.6% of first time takers passed the bar. However, there are significant disparities depending on the law school one attends. For example, first time takers from Baylor Law School have a 92.4% passage rate while those from T.S.U. have a 62.8% passage rate.
The better comparison is July 2023 bar exam stats. February stats are always different because people arenāt graduating on time or are on their second try.
For July 2023, Illinois, 70% of takers and 79% of first time takers passed, out of 1998 takers.
ā¦either way through I donāt think the bar exam is really comparable, whether because itās at the end of three years of school or because itās the last test to practice a regulated profession.
Back when I was teaching at the University of Nebraska, I sometimes offered students a choice between a closed book exam, an open book exam or having one 3x5 card of notes that they could consult for formulas, etc.
Students almost always chose the open book exam, but I warned them that theyāre usually harder and that IMHO there is no valid excuse for not passing an open book exam with flying colors.
Add to that the nearly unlimited time to complete the Senior exam (2 months) and the passage rate should be in the 90% range. If itās not, then thereās something seriously wrong with the whole process. (But I shouldnāt get back on THAT soapbox again.)
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I think the 2 months isnāt all that relevant. How many hours do you think someone puts into it? Thereās going to be diminishing returns after maybe 2 or 3 hours.
Itās not supposed to be an easy test, and it seems that itās common to underestimate it. (And I will admit that, while I passed very easily the first time 20 years ago, I tried to see what I could do this time simulated closed book and barely passed).
I did take the exam closed book in 1987 and passed though only by a few points. Iād probably have to spend a fair amount of time studying the current rules before Iād have the confidence to try that again.
I suspect the two-month wait is more to avoid running out of variants of the senior exam to send candidates wanting a re-test, as I think they may only have 3 or 4 of them.