What do you think the average is for the number of master scalps (regular-rated tournament victories over opponents rated 2200+) for a newly minted master?
Or to put it another way, on average, how many masters will one defeat before becoming a master himself?
The MSA is a great place to go for a hard answer to your question. We currently have lots of young masters (and older ones) who started their chessplaying career since 1991. Pick as many of these players as you wish and perform a statistical analysis. This will answer your question in part. You will be able to state a figure with confidence concerning this sample.
Anecdotal evidence is more unreliable, especially for those who have played thousands of games and didn’t keep score. It still would be interesting if some masters would relate their own number of scalps to you. In your analysis are you considering whether the same master was scalped multiple times, this seems to be a trend in some areas?
Well William, I guess I am just lazy. I think doing statistical analysis would take FAR too long using MSA. I’m not looking to prove anything one way or another. Anecdotal evidence or just an opinion was what I was looking for. I was using this as a jumping off point for stories, amusing anecdotes, tales of games, etc. etc.
This strikes me as pointless research. What would be the value of that information?
I also think that its not just “scalps” but also draws. In my history I cracked 2000, and then instantly had another good event and shot up to about 2150. I then spent a year+ bouncing between 2100 and 2170-ish. When I settled the issues, I went on a streak of 11 games against masters without a loss. The games weren’t all pretty - but I was avoiding losing.