National Entries

Running Chess Tournaments
41

So a million of people find their way to Rehoboth Beach every summer, but somehow chess players would never be able to get here?

42

I tend to agree that Philadelphia could be a great site, if affordable. We hold too many national scholastics in Orlando and Nashville for my preferences, and not enough west of the Mississippi or in the northeast (Of the announced upcoming national scholastics, none are west of the Rockies or in the northeast.)

The question of which metro area has the most players within driving distance is interesting.

A ‘4 hour driving radius’ is rather difficult to compute, because in some parts of the country (think Los Angeles) it might be difficult to drive 40 miles in an hour and in other parts of the country you can go 75 miles/hour on the Interstate.

Manhattan and Philadelphia are less than 100 miles apart, can that distance be driven in less than two hours? If I got in my car right now, in four hours I could be well past either Des Moines or Kansas City and nearly 2/3 of the way to Denver.

It is easier to draw the circles based on miles, not hours. We have ZIP code data with latitude/longitude, though we haven’t renewed the subscription to the data service we were using as a cost-cutting measure.

I suspect the NYC metro area would nose out Philadelphia, because the circle would get further up New England.

Texas has the most scholastic players under age 12, well ahead of both NY and CA.

Texas also leads in the 13-15 and 16-19 age groups.

However, quite a few of those players are in the Brownsville area, which is over 500 miles from Dallas.

Here’s the complete breakdown by state. I’ve shown CA twice, once for the entire state and once splitting out N-Cal and S-Cal.

[code]State Members 12/below 13-15 16-19 20-24 25-64 65+

CA 8187 3010 629 328 194 3084 942
TX 7340 3921 870 494 175 1544 336
NY 6399 2666 636 389 189 1954 565
CA-N 4372 1939 353 190 82 1417 391
FL 4067 1720 486 249 112 1148 352
CA-S 3815 1071 276 138 112 1667 551
IL 3570 1474 308 235 147 1164 242
NJ 3188 1017 318 345 80 1158 270
PA 3148 966 323 243 101 1196 319
VA 2624 1002 241 159 94 933 195
OH 2313 586 292 235 70 939 191
NC 2064 921 193 135 61 610 144
MD 2004 724 181 156 53 723 167
AZ 1952 789 221 139 56 594 153
MI 1937 724 208 161 50 611 183
MA 1621 339 93 67 63 834 225
IN 1600 563 251 204 50 440 92
TN 1474 668 201 109 33 398 65
KY 1437 791 152 127 29 305 33
GA 1429 568 135 89 35 504 98
WI 1232 389 113 102 51 472 105
MO 1208 337 152 147 44 439 89
WA 1151 264 72 57 42 575 141
CT 1126 421 85 56 45 420 99
MN 1094 243 190 106 35 428 92
CO 932 197 88 65 40 458 84
NV 882 222 86 167 17 288 102
NM 702 202 92 59 39 247 63
OR 652 133 66 49 22 308 74
AL 641 248 62 50 14 220 47
IA 638 285 54 29 28 212 30
UT 515 169 47 32 22 201 44
LA 506 136 21 26 22 241 60
SC 487 107 35 36 14 234 61
ME 436 117 61 62 13 128 55
KS 395 94 44 38 9 169 41
OK 382 40 32 34 26 196 54
NH 353 82 32 20 14 153 52
WV 281 89 35 14 6 110 27
AR 279 38 23 34 13 140 31
NE 274 44 28 21 11 143 27
DC 254 65 17 16 13 114 29
SD 244 132 38 3 4 55 12
MS 237 62 25 30 4 97 19
RI 237 52 35 11 14 102 23
VT 224 77 29 22 16 64 16
ID 177 30 18 14 9 81 25
DE 167 36 16 7 7 80 21
HI 150 14 12 8 7 93 16
AK 95 10 2 3 2 67 11
TERR 85 14 11 6 0 42 12
MT 80 1 3 5 3 48 20
ND 70 6 7 7 5 37 8
MIL 66 2 0 1 9 54 0
WY 37 1 0 2 3 26 5
[/code]

43

I can get from Rehoboth Beach to the Empire State Building in less than 4 hours.

44

Also, the Little League Softball World Series is held here in Sussex County Delaware.

45

And the College World Series is held in Omaha, but I don’t see that as having much impact on chess in the state of Nebraska.

46

The point is that Rehoboth Beach isn’t some remote, inaccessible locale.

47

Well, a two hour (or longer) rental car drive or shuttle bus trip from/to the Philadelphia airport (one of them probably in the wee hours of the morning on Monday) isn’t exactly on my list of things I most want to do with a bunch of kids in tow.

BTW, what’s a round trip shuttle bus ride from the airport to Delaware going to cost? Could it be more than the entry fee to the tournament?

48

From the amtrak station in wilmington to rehoboth and back is about $16 per person by bus.

49

And how much is it from/to Philadelphia International Airport?

50

I’m geeking out over those data, because I’ve been wondering what the “chessiest” states are. Now I can calculate it!

State Population USCF Percent Z DC 599657 254 0.0424% 2.258570477 NJ 8707739 3188 0.0366% 1.638686037 VT 621760 224 0.0360% 1.575650719 MD 5699478 2004 0.0352% 1.482270812 NM 2009671 702 0.0349% 1.457457466 NV 2643085 882 0.0334% 1.289068525 KY 4314113 1437 0.0333% 1.282508191 VA 7882590 2624 0.0333% 1.280272052 ME 1318301 436 0.0331% 1.257006117 NY 19541453 6399 0.0327% 1.221721126 CT 3518288 1126 0.0320% 1.141725672 SD 812383 244 0.0300% 0.929312426 TX 24782302 7340 0.0296% 0.884309614 AZ 6595778 1952 0.0296% 0.881804679 IL 12910409 3570 0.0277% 0.672252726 NH 1324575 353 0.0267% 0.564158901 PA 12604767 3148 0.0250% 0.383430973 IN 6423113 1600 0.0249% 0.376458234 MA 6593587 1621 0.0246% 0.341340691 TN 6296254 1474 0.0234% 0.214725108 RI 1053209 237 0.0225% 0.116766932 CA 36961664 8187 0.0221% 0.078722407 NC 9380884 2064 0.0220% 0.062780316 FL 18537969 4067 0.0219% 0.055937544 WI 5654774 1232 0.0218% 0.039556364 IA 3007856 638 0.0212% -0.022554547 MN 5266214 1094 0.0208% -0.06971487 MO 5987590 1208 0.0202% -0.134317252 OH 11542645 2313 0.0200% -0.149023283 MI 9969727 1937 0.0194% -0.214816844 DE 885122 167 0.0189% -0.275372482 CO 5024748 932 0.0185% -0.309812148 UT 2784572 515 0.0185% -0.315575856 WA 6664195 1151 0.0173% -0.447543164 OR 3825687 652 0.0170% -0.472215057 WV 1819777 281 0.0154% -0.644945169 NE 1796619 274 0.0153% -0.665504007 GA 9829211 1429 0.0145% -0.742370988 KS 2818747 395 0.0140% -0.799002013 AL 4708708 641 0.0136% -0.842177325 AK 698473 95 0.0136% -0.843469387 HI 1295178 150 0.0116% -1.061337864 ID 1545801 177 0.0115% -1.075474106 LA 4492076 506 0.0113% -1.095548668 ND 646844 70 0.0108% -1.143282933 SC 4561242 487 0.0107% -1.158909192 OK 3687050 382 0.0104% -1.193032622 AR 2889450 279 0.0097% -1.269058112 MT 974989 80 0.0082% -1.425538031 MS 2951996 237 0.0080% -1.444605053 WY 544270 37 0.0068% -1.577328519 TERR 4231403 85 0.0020% -2.093964618

So . . . what is it about D.C. culture that produces so many chess players? Why so little chess in the Great Basin and the Deep South? What is South Dakota doing right?

51

I suspect DC’s position on your list is due to two factors:

  1. It is a very compact urban area. This probably helps NJ too, and possibly other northeast states.

  2. David Mehler’s Metro Chess Center has held 73 tournaments since January of 2009. (If Mehler hasn’t gotten ‘chess club of the year’ or ‘tournament director of the year’ yet, he should be given consideration for both awards.)

52

While No. 2 surely has more to do with it, No. 1 suggests the hypothesis that density is more important than population.

The data don’t support the hypothesis – and, amusingly, the District of Columbia comes in dead last in members per (residents per square mile). The correlation coefficient between population density and USCF membership is −0.04; between population and USCF membership, 0.96.

53

You can rollerblade from the airport to wilmington if you want.

54

I think density in terms of members per square mile is less important than critical mass, the point at which a chess population becomes more than self-sustaining (at least as long as it has something or someone serving as the focal point.)

Every USCF member living in DC could drive to the same location (such as Mehler’s chess center) within a relatively short period of time, the same cannot be said in most other states.

Jerry Nash’s remark about every great (scholastic) chess program is only one retirement away from collapse comes to mind.

55

I’ll note that a bunch of the states at the top of that list pinwheel Philly, and the stats show that is an area that should be considered for a National Scholastic on merit alone. It’s not in New York. I am not bellyaching. I think it’s possible to bus as many kids to a National in Philly based on the numbers than will attend one of this year’s tournaments, and I think it is possible to produce a competitive room rate there.

The bottom states tend to be rural, low-density ones. Georgia has Atlanta, but that city is more of a sprawling wave with great air service than one with a traditional high-density core. So is Orlando. Both of them had Nationals on the calendar that are heavily dependent on out-of-area attraction.

56

I was thinking 200 miles. My experience with the New York State Scholastic is that it is possible to get NYC players to come in numbers to Saratoga Springs (about 3 1/2 hours) and Ithaca (4-4 1/2, though with the Ivy hook), but not to Rochester or places further north and west. There you only get the “special” ones, not mass numbers.

At four hours, it is possible to bus it and get home at a reasonable hour at night. Further and you’re staying over another night.

57

A visual representation of membership relative to state population. Blue = proportionally many members, brown = proportionally few members. Patterns are visible.

58

I wonder how that map would change if you limited it to adults (say 20 and up) or to members under 20?

FWIW, here’s the breakdown for members within 200 miles of downtown Philadelphia or the Empire State Building in Manhattan. (I threw a few other cities in just for fun.)

[code]City Members 12/below 13-15 16-19 20-24 25-64 65+

Philly 15890 5890 1502 1196 470 5452 1380
NYC 15566 5474 1471 1114 477 5558 1472
Wash DC 10578 3508 1032 892 313 3906 927
Boston 10354 3873 946 603 342 3584 1006
Chicago 6613 2568 657 533 256 2131 468
LA 3954 1098 312 169 115 1702 558
Orlando 3775 1644 441 231 103 1036 320
Nashville 3691 1761 438 273 80 980 159
Atlanta 2886 1109 270 193 77 1020 217
Dallas 2770 1105 273 197 105 877 213
St Louis 2107 749 275 200 79 666 138
Rochester 1459 239 117 100 48 761 194
Las Vegas 1054 232 92 185 18 389 138

[/code]

Philadelphia wins, but it was fairly close.

59

But folks will go there - and like it.

60

As requested:

[size=150]Adult (20 and up)[/size]

[size=150]Youth (under 20)[/size]

Now we see what South Dakota was up to.

I also find striking the diminution of Texas when the youth players are subtracted out. It’s a scholastic powerhouse, but among adults, it’s just another Southern/Plains state.

The District of Columbia is the runaway leader in adult chess. The number of adult USCF members per capita there (26 per 100,000) is fully 50 percent above second-place New Mexico (17.4 per 100,000).