Our Future?

50% effectiveness is claimed by some (I don’t know how accurately) for current flu vaccines. He is probably assuming that the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines would be similar. However, even if this turns out to be the case, 50% is still a whole lot better than having no vaccine at all.

Also, if we’re going to compare this to the flu, a few more points are worth a mention. We have already had significantly more deaths from COVID-19 than from a typical annual flu – despite fairly radical measures that have been taken to slow it down (if we had done nothing, we would probably have had over a million deaths by now) – and we are just getting started. This disease doesn’t appear to have a “season” like the flu does. Summer didn’t slow it down at all. If we “open up” the economy now (in the sense of pretending nothing is wrong and going back to business as usual), we will have over a million deaths by the end of the year. That would also have disastrous effects on the economy. Pandora’s box has been opened, and there’s no going back. Any return to “normal” will necessarily be incremental, and we may never get all the way back. Better get used to the “new normal”.

Fortunately, the COVID vaccines are looking much better. There are still many pragmatic issues - getting 320MM people vaccinated when 100MM say they will wait.

90% x 70% = 63% – means herd immunity is not likely on the first pass.

Revaccination will, for the foreseeable future, likely be required annually.

So, people can decrease their individual risk, and the risks associated with gathering and restaurants will significantly decline, but in general, mask-wearing may still be necessary, along with other mitigation procedures, for several more years.

There are good reasons for not rushing in to take the first vaccine that comes out. A friend of mine who works at the CDC has told me not to take the Pfizer vaccine until it’s been out for quite a while. It’s an mRNA vaccine, and no vaccine of this type has been approved for any other pathogen. The reason is that this type of vaccine creates non-specific autoimmune responses (read: unintended consequences). According to her scientists are working to solve this, but are not there yet. Although I’m in at least a couple of high risk categories for COVID I am going to heed her advice and wait to see how this works out before I jump in on it.

Ditto.

Even if only half the people get the vaccine, the impact on spreading the virus will be significant if it works as well as they claim.

Just being in a high risk category or two won’t necessarily get you much higher up on the priority list for the vaccines, it’ll be a while, possibly months, before large numbers of the general public get them, by which time hopefully more of the unintended side-effects will have been noted.

My GP doesn’t expect most of his patients to be able to get it until late winter or spring.

I’m in several high risk categories, but have a relatively low exposure risk, because I’m retired and we don’t go out much. And we still have a mask order in place here, one that seems to have fairly high compliance, at least in the places we do go, like the grocery store. So, I’m not in a big hurry.

who believes that you’re going to lose some people.

We are going to lose some people.

In this scenario, could not centers link from around the world, even. Players in Tokyo, London, Dallas, NY City
etc. Thousands and thousands of players playing from various locations. So, would this event that has pairings both
with same location players, and those around the world, be OTB, or online ??? Or perhaps a combined online, OTB
event. Why not??

I not only think that such ideas are POSSIBLE, but indeed VERY PROBABLE, and perhaps sooner than we might expect.

Rob Jones

well because of both of us having auto-immune diseases; we have told no vaccines. Two specialists @ major hospitals have said to us: "We don’t trust the technology. Also, vaccine or not, you Cannot force people to wear a mask :frowning:. I miss OTB; online poor T/C’S

I don’t think my wife will be able to take either of the covid vaccines currently pending approval, either. I will be, but I’m not still working and right now I’m not leaving the house for much of anything other than medical appointments and probably won’t be until mid-February.

Excellent point. Major industries will die unless they are allowed to continue operating. And the trickle down effect
of near total shutdowns as proposed by some governors will take America into the Abyss.

I don’t think a complete shutdown is either necessary or desirable, but millions of deaths (which is what we’ll have if we completely “open the economy up”) will also take us into an Abyss. One Abyss is as bad as the other. We need to find a middle ground, and I believe most governors are doing their best to accomplish that. I would absolutely not want to be in their shoes.